“The Futures polygon”

The idea of the Futures Polygon (FP) stemmed from reading about the Futures Wheel (FW) in Futures Research Methodology 1.0 (Glenn, Gordon, 1994) and realizing that the Futures Wheel lacked the concept of evaluating the likelihood of forecasted impacts, an indispensable element in exploring the future, The FW creator regarded unanimity1 as a good indicator of the plausibility of events/impacts on which there is agreement, because the unanimity can be interpreted as a “guarantee” that the impact will happen within a “realistic temporal horizon”.